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Coronavirus/COVID-19 Updates & Alerts

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23 hours ago, richard5933 said:

 

...Why are you surprised (or upset) that models based on the early theories didn't turn out to reflect accurately what happened? Did you think that they were supposed to be like a crystal ball and tell exactly what would take place?...

I'm not mad or upset.  My point was that people lock on to recommendations by the "experts" assuming they will be correct and, with this latest virus, they have been not at all correct.  My opinion is that the models and theories are a toss up.  Look at hurricane predictions when a storm is heading to Florida from the southeast.  Will it go east of Florida and up the Atlantic Coast, or west of Florida and up the Gulf Coast or straight up the middle of Florida?  The "experts" don't know, they are guessing.

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10 hours ago, FIVE said:

I'm not mad or upset.  My point was that people lock on to recommendations by the "experts" assuming they will be correct and, with this latest virus, they have been not at all correct.  My opinion is that the models and theories are a toss up.  Look at hurricane predictions when a storm is heading to Florida from the southeast.  Will it go east of Florida and up the Atlantic Coast, or west of Florida and up the Gulf Coast or straight up the middle of Florida?  The "experts" don't know, they are guessing.

Yup - and if I have to choose whose advice to follow, a medical doctor with decades trying to predict which way these things will go or a politician worried about his/her next election, I'm prone to follow the advice of the doctor. Either may be wrong, but the odds are better of staying alive with one.

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Wow, since I was born in Sweden, 1943, that was an American thing...hear about it in 1953, when we got here!

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The "data and modeling" discussion has my engineering mind (chemical engineer by degree) with unanswered questions about the data presented on local and national news each day.   For the state of Texas there have been a total of 39,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 to date with the following breakdown:

  • 1,100 deaths (2.8% of all cases)
  • 21,700 recovered (54.8% of all cases)
  • 17,100 "active" cases (43.2 % of all cases)
  • 1,500 are currently hospitalized (8.8 % of "active cases")

Additionally, 526,000 tests have been conducted to date meaning with 39,600 confirmed cases the "infection rate" is 7.5%.

Here is the link to the Texas COVID-19 data --> https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 

With 17,100 active cases but only 1,500 currently hospitalized, what has become of the remaining 15,600 active cases?   Are they home? Are they wandering the county side?  Why doesn't the media report on the non-hospitalized active cases.  My guess is most of those cases are "mild" and reporting as such does not align with the "you're all going to die" narrative from the media.

Based on Texas data, there is a 7.5 % chance of contracting the virus with no vaccine available and if contracted there is a 97%+ chance of not succumbing to the virus.  

For the current flu season, there was a 15% chance of contracting the flu with vaccines available!   The death rate of folks infected with the flu was only 0.1% so the COVID-19 death rate is substantially higher  --> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

My engineering mind is confused.  News media tells me if I don't stay-at-home I'll contract COVID-19 and die.  Current data suggests my chance of contracting COVID-19 with no vaccine available is 50% less than the chance of contracting the flu with vaccines available.  What's a person to do?    I'm in the next wave of employees to return to work a week from now.  With 97%+ odds of not contracting the virus combined with proper social distancing, sanitizing work areas, I like my odds of staying healthy.

Am I missing something in my look at the data?

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, fagnaml said:

The "data and modeling" discussion has my engineering mind (chemical engineer by degree) with unanswered questions about the data presented on local and national news each day.   For the state of Texas there have been a total of 39,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 to date with the following breakdown:

  • 1,100 deaths (2.8% of all cases)
  • 21,700 recovered (54.8% of all cases)
  • 17,100 "active" cases (43.2 % of all cases)
  • 1,500 are currently hospitalized (8.8 % of "active cases")

Additionally, 526,000 tests have been conducted to date meaning with 39,600 confirmed cases the "infection rate" is 7.5%.

Here is the link to the Texas COVID-19 data --> https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 

With 17,100 active cases but only 1,500 currently hospitalized, what has become of the remaining 15,600 active cases?   Are they home? Are they wandering the county side?  Why doesn't the media report on the non-hospitalized active cases.  My guess is most of those cases are "mild" and reporting as such does not align with the "you're all going to die" narrative from the media.

Based on Texas data, there is a 7.5 % chance of contracting the virus with no vaccine available and if contracted there is a 97%+ chance of not succumbing to the virus.  

For the current flu season, there was a 15% chance of contracting the flu with vaccines available!   The death rate of folks infected with the flu was only 0.1% so the COVID-19 death rate is substantially higher  --> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

My engineering mind is confused.  News media tells me if I don't stay-at-home I'll contract COVID-19 and die.  Current data suggests my chance of contracting COVID-19 with no vaccine available is 50% less than the chance of contracting the flu with vaccines available.  What's a person to do?    I'm in the next wave of employees to return to work a week from now.  With 97%+ odds of not contracting the virus combined with proper social distancing, sanitizing work areas, I like my odds of staying healthy.

Am I missing something in my look at the data?

 

 

 

 

Thanks, it's refreshing to read data without a political spin involved!  Long ago a professor told my class, "figures don't lie, sometimes they may be manipulated to obtain a different result though". Look up the data for Sweden and how they are handling this virus, then compare with the rest of the countries on this planet.

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Does make one wonder!  

Mike, my engineering degree is Petroleum, with a secondary in Geo Pressure (Geology).  Your raw data makes sense!  What does not make sense to me, why is the US hit harder than the other countries in the World?  Or perhaps it just seems so, from the limited amount of hard core info we get?

RayIN, basically what my math professor passed on!  No computers back then, just a slide rule but the results are the same...bad numbers in, 

bad numbers out. 

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2 hours ago, manholt said:

.... What does not make sense to me, why is the US hit harder than the other countries in the World?  Or perhaps it just seems so, from the limited amount of hard core info we get?....

I've wondered about that as well.  A great deal has to do with many countries not sophisticated enough to even know what their population is, much less not being able to test as many, diagnose as many or treat as many as the USA.

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I agree with you. 

Lot's of this still goes back to "context" of the information. We had a increase in cases in Tarrant County. Sounds pretty bad yet if you stayed out of the places where it happend you should be fairly safe. If you weren't in prison/ jail or a assisted living center. True it wasn't to good on the people in those places. The testing produces higher numbers of positive cases because they are going to places with outbreaks to do testing. 

Bill

 

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What's weird is:

Djibouti, 1256 cases, 3 deaths

Angola, 45 cases, 2 deaths

Nigeria, 4641 cases 150 deaths.

Ethiopia, 261 cases, 5 deaths

DR Congo, 1024 cases, 41 deaths

Egypt, 10093 cases, 544 deaths

Kenya, 700 cases, 33 deaths

Zambia, 267 cases, 7 deaths

North Sudan, 1526 cases, 74 deaths

Do a search on who they are in debt to.

Africa has a population of 1.216 billion people with 63,298 cases and 2,290 deaths.

That is 0.01% of the population that has the coronavirus. Please tell me its because of the heat.

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Wayne, heat is what they all have in common, along with Humidity, poverty & for the most part lack of education!

Got a mail today from my family in Oslo, Norway.  The Virus did not hit as hard as expected, so Norway is open again, all of our business tenants, except for one, is back to work.  

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10 hours ago, manholt said:

The Virus did not hit as hard as expected

Are they anticipating on a second round or is it gone, or perceived as its gone?

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Going, going, gone as far as they are concerned.  They'll probably have more cases, but the culture looks at that as normal.  

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On 5/11/2020 at 6:12 PM, fagnaml said:

Additionally, 526,000 tests have been conducted to date meaning with 39,600 confirmed cases the "infection rate" is 7.5%.

I'm not sure why you treat this as a 7.5% chance of contracting the disease.  The infection rate isn't static--the number of infections increases daily.  Herd immunity doesn't take place until at least ~60% have been infected.  Given the higher death rate of this virus compared to the flu, that means that a significant number of people are yet to die as the virus continues to spread.

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I work for a "big oil" company headquartered in Houston which has ~15,000 company employees and ~10,000 contract employees.  Of the 25,000 total employees, ~80% are "operations critical" employees who have reported to work each day the last two months operating and maintaining all of the company's assets including refineries, pipelines, terminals, lube oil packaging facilities, etc. and continuing construction of capital projects.   The other 20% that do not have operations roles (commercial trading, finance, legal, IT, etc.) who could work effectively remotely were directed to do so.   With the high population of employees at their work locations each day there have been ZERO transmissions of the virus even though those employees had to frequent gasoline stations, pick up lunches or dinners, make grocery store runs for their families, etc.   The only "normal" activity the 20,000 "operations critical" employees have not done is get a hair cut or dine in a restaurant.  

Non-operations employees started returning to the office last Monday, May 4, with ~20% returning that day, 25% returning this past Monday, May 18, and another 25% returning on Tuesday, May 26 with all non-operations employees back in the office by June 1.  About 10% of employees who work on the commercial trade floor will continue working remotely as the trade floor desk arrangement cannot achieve the 6 feet minimum social distancing requirement.

Across the entire company there have been only 17 confirmed cases of the virus (0.07%) with zero hospitalizations and zero deaths.   This is despite the fact that a sizeable number of the operations critical employees live and work in the "hot spots" of the U.S. including New York City (and New Jersey next to NYC), New Orleans and Los Angeles.   My company's data and success suggests that rigidly following social distancing, assuring exceptional personal and work place hygiene, always wearing face masks when social distancing can not be maintained, not reporting to work if sick for any reason, etc. that a safe, mostly normal life is achievable despite the virus.

Thoughts from the forum?

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Mike, if you want my true thoughts, you'll have to PM me!

Other than that, being totally PC, you got it by scrolling up! 

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2 hours ago, docj said:

I'm not sure why you treat this as a 7.5% chance of contracting the disease.  The infection rate isn't static--the number of infections increases daily.  Herd immunity doesn't take place until at least ~60% have been infected.  Given the higher death rate of this virus compared to the flu, that means that a significant number of people are yet to die as the virus continues to spread.

So how are we supposed to interpret the information? What are you suggesting? I hate to tell you but there are a significant number of people yet to die whether you are home hiding under your bed or out living your life with basic precautions. 

This whole statement points out the sensational reporting about the virus. " The infection rate isn't static--the number of infections increases daily." So does the number of people who are getting over the infection. 

Bill

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All you need to do is look up NRC...not the Nuclear Reactor, rather the Norwegian Rescue. It gives some interesting numbers in regards to the current COVID-19, in undeveloped countries around the world...the ones with no hygiene, hand soap, running water, min. food, toilet facilities, etc. NRC has been around as a non profit organization since pre WWII, headquartered in Oslo, Norway at Princensgate 2...we call it P2 for short, my family owns the building and NRC is our biggest tenant.

60% of what?  World population?  Cases?  Wonder what is the % rate of COVID-19 confirmed deaths against the birth rate of the same period?  Not even taking in the death by war, natural causes, starvation, other deadly diseases!  

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The US has a population of 328,200,000 and a case total of 1,430,348. That is about 0.44% cases of Coronavirus.

85,197 have died. That is about 6% of the total # of cases

Just FYI stuff.

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13 hours ago, manholt said:

60% of what?  World population?  Cases?  Wonder what is the % rate of COVID-19 confirmed deaths against the birth rate of the same period?  Not even taking in the death by war, natural causes, starvation, other deadly diseases!  

Herd immunity requires that, at a minimum, >60% of a entire population need to be immune to a disease for future outbreaks not to spread.  That's because transmission of a disease is a probabilistic process and when herd immunity is achieved each infected person transmits to fewer than one other person. In other words, if you're a sick person what are the odds that the people you will meet and potentially transmit the disease to are already immune? This is pretty standard epidemiology; it's not "new thinking" created for the current COVID-19 situation.

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Not to beat this to death, but by that reasoning and since the Corona is not just a US problem, but World wide...by the 60% margin, then approx. 4.3 BILLION people have to get Corona!

Have 60% of the World population, had and/or been inoculated against the Flu?  Probably, but we still get it and die from it, why?  IMHO  it's because the world population increases more than decrease!  If 60% is static and the numbers increase, so do the number of cases and death...therefore we will never reach "herd immunity!"

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Everyone:  This thread has wandered well away from its intended purpose:

Coronavirus/COVID-19 Updates & Alerts

 

It has gone from "what is open/what is closed" which is the thread's intent to debating statistics and models.

Please, let's get back to helping each other determine where our fellow members can go and what restrictions there are on their planned travel.

Thanks.

Moderator

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Taking Brett's guidance and getting back to the original topic, Texas will have most of it's economy released to re-open by this coming Monday, May 18 with gyms being allowed to re-open at 25% occupancy.  The only business not re-opening yet is bars.    With businesses re-opening and stay-at-home orders expiring across the state, the wife and I are headed to Buckhorn Lake RV Resort for a long weekend outing May 28 - June 1.   When I called them to make a reservation last Thursday (May 7), the lady I talked to said their spots were nearly full for Memorial Day weekend and were quickly filling for the weekend of May 29.   She said many RV owners are wanting to "break out of jail" like my wife and I are so ready to do.   We hope the Hill Country Wineries open before our outing.

This past Saturday evening the wife and I dined at Babin's Seafood House (part of the Landyr's Group) in Katy to celebrate Mother's Day.  75% of the tables were not available to use to comply with the max 25% of capacity occupancy limit.   About 1/4 of the available tables were not being used.    The restaurant was truly spotless inside.  All of the safety protocols were in place (e.g. servers in masks and gloves, one use paper menus, hand sanitizer everywhere, etc.)  The food and adult beverages were fantastic and the service was exceptional.   My personal level of safety was much better inside Babin's than during a visit to Kroger's for groceries.    

Yesterday I got a hair cut for the first time in 2-1/2 months at the "Tune Up - The Manly Salon" in Katy.   The Tune Up also had all safety protocols in place e.g. customers and stylists in face masks, one time use aprons for customers, lots of hand sanitizer and cleaning supplies, appointments only, etc.)      The Tune Up cleanliness was on par with a hospital !

Until now I never knew how much joy that dining at restaurant and a hair cut could bring !!  :D

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Yay!  Governor Abbott is allowing Texas bars and wine tasting rooms to open this Friday, May 22, which is perfect timing for our trip to Buckhorn Lake RV Resort in Kerrville, TX next weekend (May 28 - June 1).   Will make reservations at our favorite and new wineries in the Hill Country to taste some great Texas wines!  And we'll visit the Texas Hill Country Olive Ranch near Dripping Springs to re-stock our olive oil supply.

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Mike, please list some of your favorite Texas wines. Next winter when we are down in Texas at Alsatian RV Resort we would like to try some.

Roland

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